Abstract:

India’s economic engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has intensified over the past decade, yet this expansion has been accompanied by persistent and widening trade imbalances. This paper analyses India’s bilateral trade imbalances with major ASEAN economies—Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and Singapore—over the period 2012–2024. Using secondary data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry, UN Comtrade, ASEAN Secretariat, and EXIM Bank of India, the study employs descriptive and comparative analysis along with HS 2-digit commodity composition to identify structural drivers of trade deficits. The findings reveal that while total trade volumes have increased substantially, India’s imports from ASEAN have grown at a faster pace than exports, leading to a consistently negative trade balance, particularly after 2018–19. Key contributors to the deficit include coal, palm oil, electronics, machinery, and intermediate inputs, reflecting India’s dependence on energy resources and manufacturing value chains dominated by ASEAN economies. The study also highlights the role of tariff asymmetry under the ASEAN–India Free Trade Agreement, weak enforcement of rules of origin, non-tariff barriers, and underutilization of FTA benefits by Indian exporters. The paper concludes that India’s trade deficit with ASEAN is largely structural in nature and recommends targeted policy interventions such as rebalancing tariff concessions, strengthening rules of origin, export diversification, and a country-specific trade strategy to achieve a more sustainable and mutually beneficial trade relationship.
 

Keywords:

India–ASEAN trade, trade imbalance, ASEAN–India Free Trade Agreement, commodity composition, tariff asymmetry, bilateral trade deficit

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